Oh week 4, how I despise you. Last week was a bit of a let down for me going 6-8-1, with the push being the Seattle Texan game. It’s hard to figure out the league so far. There is only a handful of elite teams, and the rest are all kind of the same. The five teams that are 4-0 continue to dominate their oppositions, but then there are 16 teams that are 3-1 or 2-2. The rest of the teams, excluding Atlanta (1-3) and Green Bay (1-2), are already looking forward to the draft. The best two divisions in the NFL are both in the AFC, with the AFC East and AFC West at 11-5. Compare that to my Cowboys division (NFC East) at 4-12. Three of the five undefeated teams come out of the AFC, but somehow the NFC is favored in the Super Bowl this year. This week Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Minnesota and Washington are on bye. All of these teams need a bye more than any other team, especially Tampa Bay. What in the world is going on with the Bucs? Sorry for the let down last week, now let’s move on from the horror that was week 4. Your week 5 lines as one simple gambler sees them.
Last week- 6-8-1
Home teams in Bold
Guys with big or sneaky fantasy days in red
Cleveland (-4.5) over Buffalo
I’m going to say something that I never thought I would say this year…..The Browns might be the best team in the AFC North. They covered and won the last two weeks, and I am riding their hot hand one more week. It makes no sense, how have they played so well after losing their first two picks from last year’s draft. Well not playing Brandon Weeden will make any team play better, but still Trent Richardson. He was supposed to be the Browns “Franchise Back”, and now he’s just gone. The Browns must have been watching the Broncos game and realized that running backs are overrated, and passing is the new running game. Both Bills running backs are coming back from injuries, and going against this stellar Browns D I see a long night for the Bills. So ill take the Browns giving 4.5 points.
Jordan Cameron and Fred Jackson
Kansas City (-3) over Tennessee
Here is something else I thought I would never say, Man I wish Jake Locker was playing in this game. This game would be a sneaky good game if he were in. Instead, we have to deal with the Amish Rocket himself, Mr. Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Chiefs have beaten, in order, Jacksonville, Dallas, Philly and the Giants. Not really a murderers ally. This game had the potential to be the first true test for the Chiefs, but it looks as if we will have to wait until week 7 (Texans) until they get tested. The only way I see this game being close is if the Titans can create some points through defense or special teams. With Fitzpatrick playing quarterback for the Titans, I will give the three points and take the Chiefs.
Jamaal Charles and Nate Washington
Miami (-3) over Baltimore
Through the first 25 minutes of the Monday night game, it looked as if Miami was going to keep that game close. Then the Saints got a turnover and took over the game. I think Miami is for real and has a good chance of getting a wild card berth this year. On the other hand, I did think the Ravens would struggle this year, but not this much. With what they have shown so far this year, I would be surprised if they finish over .500. Did the Ravens forget who the best player on the team is? Ray rice had only 5 touches this week, and I know he is coming off an injury but come on 5 carries. They only ran the ball twice in the second half, and they were not that far behind the Bills. Playing this game in Miami I am really surprised the Dolphins are only giving 3 points. So I will give those points and count my money later.
Brian Hartline and Ray Rice
Jacksonville (+12) over St Louis
Real quick thought on this game…..How is St Louis favored by 12 against anyone? They have been down by 20 or more their last three games. I know that the Jags are terrible, but how much worse are they than the Rams. They might have a few more offensive weapons on St Louis, but it is not as if they are setting the world on fire. Justin Blackmon is off suspension this week, and ready for a breakout game…..garbage time big game that is. For the first time all year I will take the Jags only to lose by 10……Goooooo Jaaags
MJD, Justin Blackmon and Austin Pettis
New England (pick em) over Cincinnati
Sunday night the Patriots put together a nice little win against the reeling Atlanta Falcons. It was their first win against a playoff caliber team, and they follow it up with another semi tough matchup. The Bengals got embarrassed last week against the Browns, only putting up 6 points. This Bengals team should be scoring in the upper 20s, and this week they will have to do that to keep up with the Pats. This has to be the week that Gronk comes back…..right? He is the key to this offense moving down the field and scoring in the red zone. Before last week, the Patriots were near last in red zone efficiency. They have come together rather quickly, and I see them continuing their winning ways with the win over the Bengals.
Kenbrell Tomkins and Gio Bernard
Seattle (-3) over Indianapolis
Last week the Seahawks went into Houston and stole a win from the Texans. They only could manage a push last week….but for me last week that was pretty much a win….and I could see that happen this week too. We have seen Seattle twice on the road this year, and both games have been gutsy comeback victories. Crazy as it is this is the first time that the Seahawks have been 4-0 in franchise history. The Colts, coming off their beat down victory of Jacksonville, have a lot to prove if they want to be seen as a contender in the AFC. This week isn’t their week, and I see a big statement win for the Seahawks.
Seattle D and Marshawn Lynch
Detroit (+7) over Green Bay
The Packers need this game bad….as much as I need another season of Breaking Bad. Coming off their bye week they are third in the division. If they lose to Detroit, they will be 2.5 games back. They get Eddie Lacy back from his concussion, and he needs to have a huge game to keep the Lions off the field. Reggie Bush is giving the Lions something they haven’t had ever, and he fits their team so well. Last week, every time I looked up he was breaking off a big run against the Chicago D. Green Bay will need to keep him in check if they hope to win this game. When it is all said and done I see Green Bay winning, but the Lions keeping it close.
Calvin, Reggie Bush and ever Packers receiver
New Orleans (-1) over Chicago
Last week the Saints came out of the Monday night game looking as if they are one of the best teams in the NFC. The Bears went the other way and now their defense looks suspect. If the Bears are not getting turnovers, they are just a regular defense. The Lions torched the Bears D, and now with the Saints coming into town I suspect more of the same for their defense. Who can guard Jimmy Graham? He might end the year with 25 touchdowns, and some people said he was not worth an early pick…cough cough Richard cough. I think they Saints blow out the Bears and get the easy cover.
Jimmy Graham and Matt Forte
Philadelphia (+2) over New York Giants
This is going to be a terrible game, and I don’t have anything nice to say. So I’ll take the team that is getting points, so the Eagles it is.
Victor Cruz and McCoy
Carolina (-2.5) over Arizona
So far this year Carolina has lost a real tough game to the Seahawks, and blown a lead and lost a game they shouldn’t of to Buffalo. I think this team might be a little underrated. I was hoping Coach Rivera was going to get fired, and I would feel better if he had. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Panthers ripped off 5 or 6 straight wins and became a contender down the end of the stretch. Carson Palmer is going to do Carson Palmer things, and give that sly Carolina D a couple easy score. Only giving 2.5 points is a treat so I’ll take the Panthers.
Carolina D and Larry Fitzgerald
Dallas (+9) over Denver
I know I know such a homer pick, and it is but for some reason I think they will cover. Yes, the Broncos have covered every game so far, and yes they are averaging 44 points a game (more points than Jacksonville or Tampa has scored all season), but this is week I think my Cowboys will cover the spread. The Dallas Cowboys have beaten Peyton Manning the last 2 times they have faced him (2006 and 2010). In those games, he has thrown six interceptions and three pick-sixes. The question with Dallas is can they force Peyton into any turnovers? If they can, they can keep this game close and cover the nine points.
Wes Welker and Dez Bryant
Houston (+7) over San Francisco
Houston is going through a tough stretch right now most people in the city want Matt Schaub’s head. He literally threw away the game last week. This week they go into San Francisco, who are facing their own questions. What will Colin Kaepernick look like against this Texans defense? Can Frank Gore have another big game? Arian Foster finally looked like himself last week, getting over 30 touches. The Texans really need this game, and I can see them coming out hot early and taking an early lead. The issue is when the game gets into the second half will they be able to put the 49ers away. I say the 49ers win a close game, but the Texans definitely cover with the 7 points.
Arian Foster, Owen Daniels and Vernon Davis
San Diego (-5) over Oakland
San Diego….I believe it means an old wooden ship…is looking good. Phil Rivers is third highest scoring player in fantasy this year, behind Peyton Manning and Drew Brees. It seems like they are having a 2005 flashback. All they needed was a run game, and Danny Woodhead seems to be filling in quite nicely. Oakland’s Defense is struggling this year, and with the Chargers firing on all cylinders, I think the Raiders are in trouble. I mean shit they had to push their game back six hours. That is twice this year that the NFL has lost to the MLB in scheduling conflicts. So Oakland, not only loses to the Oakland A’s but will also not cover the 5 points.
Danny Woodhead and Antonio Gates
Atlanta (-10) over New York Jets
Atlanta needs this game in the worst way. They need a big win in front of their fans after that Sunday night game. Also, the Atlanta fans need to get loud for their team after they pulled a Miami Heat fan, and leaving the game before the comeback. Geno Smith on the road has been a turnover machine, so far throwing 5 interceptions and losing 2 fumbles. I expect a huge game for Matt Ryan and a blowout win for the Falcons. Ten is a lot of points, but the Jets are just that bad.
Julio Jones, Tony Gonzalez and Bilal Powell
Let’s hope week 5 is better for us than week 4. As always hope you enjoy your week of football, and here’s to hoping your bets fall the right way, and you don’t get hit by the back door.
- Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (sixteen82.wordpress.com)
- Jake Locker Injury: What Does QB Absence Mean for Tennessee Titans, NFL? (bleacherreport.com)
- Tennessee Titans Early 2.5-Point Underdog vs Kansas City Chiefs (titansized.com)
- Greenberg’s Sports Book: NFL Pick ‘Em, Week 5 (waiverwireblog.com)
- 2013 NFL Season: Week 5 Picks and Upsets (sidelinemob.com)
- Quarterback watch, Week 5: King of the Cassel (ridenpine.com)
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